Rehabilitating Michael Flynn

Republicans are once again trying to warp reality to excuse President Trump's delusions.

President Trump and Republicans are outraged over the unjust treatment of former National Security Advisor, former general Michael Flynn by Obama's FBI. They have Attorney General Barr's dismissing of the prosecution of Flynn as proof that Flynn was mistreated and set-up by the FBI.

This story is more long and more involved then can be discussed here, but I'm dismayed by several things.

What should the FBI have done when they found the Russian's had tried to interfere with our elections? Factor in the public appeals by Trump for Russia to provide him help, the unusual and considerable number of contacts between the campaign and Russia and the overwhelming electronic proof that the Russians were helping Trump. I would be outraged if they hadn't opened an investigation, including the actions of Flynn. If the investigation spiraled out of control, and I don't think it did, it is was certainly in part because there clearly was a lot to investigate and involved people at the highest levels of our government.

But what now bothers me about the rehabilitation of Flynn is the attempt to completely forget the basic facts.

Flynn had contact with the Russian ambassador and then lied about it to the FBI and Vice-President Pence. President Trump cited these lies when he fired Flynn. And then to make it worse, Flynn lied to federal prosecutors and a federal judge.

When Flynn denied his contact with the ambassador, one group knew for sure he was not telling the truth, the Russians. This is a classic example of how to turn a person into a spy. The Russians could then go to Flynn and say something like, “We know you lied about having secret contacts with us. We won't tell anyone about this, but we could use a favor.”. And then they ask for some small favor. They do this a few more times with the requests being more significant each time. It becomes harder and harder for Flynn to say no. At some point they have enough evidence that, if released, would cause Flynn to be locked up forever. Then what would they expect the National Security Advisor to do for them?

If Flynn is so innocent, why did he repeatedly lie?

Who knows, the Russians may have more damaging information about Flynn that we don't know about . If they do, would they hesitate to use it to coerce him? And yet President Trump and Vice-President Pence say they would be open to hiring Flynn again. Really?

The FBI was right to be concerned about these guys. I certainly am.

The Real COVID-19 Plan

It is clear that we will be dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic for months. The task now seems to be how to balance the need to protect people from the serious health risks of the disease against the serious economic and social effects of social distancing. I think the solution has already been determined, but no one is going to openly admit what it is.

Since no vaccine is likely to be available for many months, we need a long term plan for dealing with the pandemic. A reasonable plan has been known for several weeks. Focus on protecting people's health to minimize deaths and serious injuries and thereby prevent the health care system and workers from being overwhelmed. The cost of this is on-going economic pain. At the same time, relax social distancing restrictions and restart some businesses, but that will mean more people will be infected and more people will die.

We would each probably define the proper balance between health and the economy differently.

People who prioritize health have the harder job. They need to keep social distancing in effect until the number of new cases is low enough that rapid testing (which we do not yet have), contact tracing and isolation can control the infection rate. This would prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed until an effective vaccine is eventually created.

On the other side, people who prioritize the economy over health have the easier task. No one likes social distancing and its economic ramifications. That makes it is easy for politicians to call for relaxed restrictions even while the infection rate is not controlled. Even without relaxed restrictions, people and businesses can just ignore social distancing laws and rules. In either case, some  businesses will reopen and maybe have a chance to survive, but more people will become infected. While more people will be sick and die, more people will hopefully now have immunity.

If infections and deaths spike, restrictions can be increased again, but that won't change much. Pandemic overload will eventually desensitize people. Once that spike is controlled people will clamor for eased restrictions again and be even less appalled by the health care side-effects.

While no one will say it, every person who is infected and survives is helping build herd immunity. Many people, especially politicians, are gambling that herd immunity will control the pandemic quicker than a new vaccine. That's the real plan.