The Real COVID-19 Plan

It is clear that we will be dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic for months. The task now seems to be how to balance the need to protect people from the serious health risks of the disease against the serious economic and social effects of social distancing. I think the solution has already been determined, but no one is going to openly admit what it is.

Since no vaccine is likely to be available for many months, we need a long term plan for dealing with the pandemic. A reasonable plan has been known for several weeks. Focus on protecting people's health to minimize deaths and serious injuries and thereby prevent the health care system and workers from being overwhelmed. The cost of this is on-going economic pain. At the same time, relax social distancing restrictions and restart some businesses, but that will mean more people will be infected and more people will die.

We would each probably define the proper balance between health and the economy differently.

People who prioritize health have the harder job. They need to keep social distancing in effect until the number of new cases is low enough that rapid testing (which we do not yet have), contact tracing and isolation can control the infection rate. This would prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed until an effective vaccine is eventually created.

On the other side, people who prioritize the economy over health have the easier task. No one likes social distancing and its economic ramifications. That makes it is easy for politicians to call for relaxed restrictions even while the infection rate is not controlled. Even without relaxed restrictions, people and businesses can just ignore social distancing laws and rules. In either case, some  businesses will reopen and maybe have a chance to survive, but more people will become infected. While more people will be sick and die, more people will hopefully now have immunity.

If infections and deaths spike, restrictions can be increased again, but that won't change much. Pandemic overload will eventually desensitize people. Once that spike is controlled people will clamor for eased restrictions again and be even less appalled by the health care side-effects.

While no one will say it, every person who is infected and survives is helping build herd immunity. Many people, especially politicians, are gambling that herd immunity will control the pandemic quicker than a new vaccine. That's the real plan.